The renewed trade war triggered by the United States —particularly Donald Trump’s threat to reintroduce tariffs should he return to power— is already generating uncertainty across key sectors of the global economy. Among the most vulnerable is the property market, closely tied to the stability of supply chains and international investor behaviour.
But how will this situation truly impact Spain’s real estate landscape, and more specifically, the Costa del Sol?
Spain’s Outlook: Local Resilience and Structural Adjustments
In the short term, Spain’s real estate sector —especially in the Costa del Sol— is showing significant resilience to the immediate impact of tariffs. This is largely due to the fact that Spain’s construction industry is not heavily dependent on materials imported from the US. Any increases in construction costs are expected to be driven by local issues such as rising electricity prices, partly due to Spain’s plan to shut down nuclear power plants by 2030.
There is also no immediate risk of a slowdown in new developments. On the contrary, demand along the Costa del Sol remains robust, and there is still a notable shortage of newly built homes. Developers and investors alike continue to see the area as an attractive and stable environment for ongoing projects.
Furthermore, as property prices rise in the US, some American buyers may turn their attention to the Costa del Sol, where they find better value for money and a superior quality of life. As a result, local sellers could benefit from shorter listing periods thanks to increased demand from abroad.
The European View: Strain on Value Chains and Regulatory Challenges
Across Europe, the broader commercial conflict is placing added pressure on the construction supply chain, especially in terms of raw materials such as steel, aluminium and copper.
Although these may not come directly from the US, the restructuring of global trade routes and heightened competition for materials have led to noticeable price hikes —affecting both project viability and developer margins.
International funds are also adopting a more cautious stance towards European real estate, potentially slowing certain investment flows in the medium term.
Nonetheless, regions like the Costa del Sol continue to stand out due to their solid infrastructure, tourism appeal and healthy returns in the rental and resale markets.
At a policy level, the European Union is expected to issue a coordinated response, which may include support packages for the construction sector and regulatory reforms to ease the pressure on critical supply costs.
Global Impact: Fragile Logistics and Strategic Openings for Spain
Internationally, the threat of new tariffs from the US risks further destabilising global supply chains —from construction materials to smart home technologies.
Spain could emerge as a relative winner if it positions itself wisely: a weakening US dollar (as observed in recent trends) may enhance the attractiveness of Spanish real estate for American buyers.
Over the medium to long term, we may also see the arrival of so-called “Trump refugees” —US citizens who seek a new life abroad in response to domestic political turmoil.
The Costa del Sol, with its excellent climate, healthcare system and established international communities, is well placed to benefit from this migration.
In addition, for dollar-based investors, Spanish property could represent an excellent opportunity, whether through buy-to-let models or capital appreciation in the resale market.
Is This a Bubble? Why the Spanish Market Remains Fundamentally Solid
Given the sharp increase in house prices, questions have emerged around whether Spain —and especially the Costa del Sol— may be heading towards a speculative bubble.
The data tell a different story: this is not a bubble. The rise in prices is driven by real, sustained demand. Sales are taking place at a steady pace, indicating a healthy market environment based on need rather than speculation.
In this context, ongoing training and education for estate agents is more important than ever. With market dynamics shifting rapidly, only well-informed professionals can offer the level of advice and foresight needed to guide clients responsibly.
Flexibility as a Strategic Advantage
While the new trade war and potential US tariffs will undoubtedly shape the global economic context, the Spanish property market —and the Costa del Sol in particular— is in a strong position to weather the storm and even capitalise on emerging opportunities.
Developers should prepare to manage delays and adjust profit margins, but they can also benefit from increased foreign capital, favourable currency movements and the enduring appeal of Mediterranean living.
The key lies in adaptability: diversifying supply sources, prioritising sustainable construction practices, strengthening skilled teams and keeping a sharp focus on delivering quality homes.
In short, rather than a threat, this new economic landscape could represent a window of opportunity for those who are ready to read the signs and act with foresight.